Posted by: Larry Smith Jr. | April 16, 2010

Concluding The Predictions

Took a little time off from blogging in no small part due to a lengthy personal vacation from work (that is still ongoing and will be for another week and a half). I hope to get back into the swing of things soon. I have been enjoying the season and games thus far. I just wanted to make a post here completing my pre-season predictions before we got too far down the road in the season and I changed my mind. Unlike the NL East and NL Central predictions that got their own posts and explanations, these will all be in one post and will be considerably more concise.

As such, here is the remainder of what I think this season has in store:

 

NL West1. Colorado

2. Los Angeles

3. Arizona

4. San Francisco

5. San Diego

Note:

I believe Arizona is the wild card team in this division. They have a number of good young players on offense and in the rotation as well as players who could yet make a large step forward in their contribution. Their number of unanswered questions could all go South/sour on them and they could finish in fourth (I find it unlikely that San Diego finishes in any position other than last), or things could all go right and they could win the division. They are certainly the team to watch in the 2010 NL West. 

 

AL East

1. New York

2. Boston

3. Tampa Bay

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

Note:

I suspect Toronto will finish with the league’s worst record. Not the American League, the Major League. I do not think they are the worst team — To my mind the teams in Washington, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Houston are worse — Yet with the unbalanced schedule I think the distance between them and the top teams (or even the next best team) in their division is by far greater than that of the other teams I just mentioned. I think Baltimore could compete for the AL Central title if they were in that division. I think they would finish third in the AL West. And yet that’s the next WORST team from Toronto. The Jays appear headed for a long season of abuse. Conversely, I think Tampa might well be one of the top 5 teams in the majors and still fail to make the playoffs. The Rays are better than any team in the AL Central, NL Central, AL West, or NL West. And yet it’s wholly possible that they’ll miss the playoffs. They could just as easily surpass Boston and/or New York and win the division. They are that good. 

 

AL Central

1. Minnesota

2. Detroit

3. Chicago

4. Cleveland

5. Kansas City

 

Note:

I think Kansas City is the worst team in the American League in terms of talent, but as noted above I think they will likely finish with a better record than Toronto. This division is the worst in baseball (rivaled by the NL Central) and the top three teams all have decent shots at winning it if they get the correct breaks. If I were to break it down into percentages, I’d say Minnesota has about a 35% shot, Detroit 30%, Chicago 29%. At least to my sensibility. 

 

AL West

1. Seattle

2. Texas

3. Los Angeles

4. Oakland

 

Note:

This division will be the most exciting division to follow during the season. All of the teams made interesting off-season moves, and this is the most difficult division to try and predict. It literally is the case that these four teams could finish in any order without it being too much of a shock. There are legitimate reasons to argue that Oakland could win the division and Seattle could finish last — Starting with Oakland’s emphasis on defense and scads of young players that could click simultaneously and Seattle’s troubled back of the rotation. A convincing article could be written for any of these teams winning the division or finishing last in it. However, all told it seems that Seattle has the best top-of-the-rotation (though an early injury to Cliff Lee doesn’t help, and they have in fact stumbled out of the gate), best team defense, and a decent bullpen to matchup with an offense that will likely not be good, but may be good enough with the other components of the team taken into consideration.

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Responses

  1. You’re definitely right so far Bill. That 2-11 start they’re off to doesn’t bode well for the remainder of their season.

  2. Hi Larry, Welcome back. I agree with the vast majority of your picks, save one. I think Baltimore fans are in for one more long, terrible season. They do have a few excellent young players that will form a nice nucleus, in a year or two. But for now, I see them finishing with a win-loss record of something like 69-93. For the sake of long-suffering Orioles fans, I hope I’m wrong. Looking forward to your next post, Bill (The On Deck Circle).


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